Win or go home, five times over
For Atlanta United, the arithmetic is now brutally simple: lose on Saturday night and the season is all but over. Draw, and the door barely stays ajar. Only a win over Lionel Messi and Inter Miami at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (7.30 pm ET, Apple TV) keeps the Five Stripes’ faint playoff hopes breathing.
Atlanta enter the weekend 14th in the Eastern Conference with 30 points from 29 matches (8 wins, 6 draws, 15 losses). They sit six points below the postseason line with five games to play and five teams to climb past. Even a perfect finish — 15 points from 15 — would only lift them to 45 points, and they would still need help from elsewhere.
First, a Miami side that has already clinched its own playoff berth and brings its most dangerous player in red-hot form stands in the way.
How Atlanta got here
This was supposed to be the rebound year. After the worst 34-match campaign in club history in 2025, Atlanta cleaned house: coach Ronny Deila and club president Garth Lagerwey were out, and Gerardo “Tata” Martino returned for a second stint on the bench. The early returns were grim. By April, Martino’s side was still searching for its first win and had scored only two goals.
The summer brought a revival of sorts. A three-match win streak in August — the club’s longest in MLS regular-season play since 2021 — pulled Atlanta back into the conversation, and the arrival of Swiss forward Breel Embolo as a Designated player added a genuine focal point up front. But the momentum faded. After those three wins, Atlanta went 1-3-3, including a 3-1 home defeat to FC Cincinnati on October 10 that left them nine points adrift.
Wednesday’s trip to Montreal was billed as a virtual elimination game between the conference’s two bottom clubs, and Atlanta responded. Goals from Miguel Almirón, Giuliano Galoppo and Embolo produced a 3-0 win, with goalkeeper Lucas Hoyos making two saves to preserve the clean sheet.
Almirón has now scored in back-to-back matches. The Montreal goal was his seventh match-winner for Atlanta in all competitions, third in club history behind Josef Martínez (31) and Thiago Almada (8). Aleksey Miranchuk entered the week as the team’s leading scorer with six goals, sharing the assist lead with Almirón at seven apiece.
Goals have been the season-long problem. Atlanta entered the Montreal match last in MLS with 33 goals, and they rank fifth-lowest in the league in expected goals (39.0). Yet the attack has stirred lately: the Five Stripes have scored multiple goals in eight of their last 12 league matches, 19 in total.
The opponent: Miami rediscovers its edge
Inter Miami secured its postseason place on Wednesday with a 2-0 home win over New York City FC, with goals from Germán Berterame and Rodrigo De Paul. The Herons sit second in the East, though 14 points behind Nashville SC, who have all but wrapped up the Supporters’ Shield.
The recent turnaround has been sharp. Miami went into the October international break on a five-match league winless run and had won just two of 12 in all competitions. Since then, they have posted back-to-back shutout wins. Head coach Cristian “Kily” González said reaching the playoffs was one of the clubs’s first goals, but that his team still needs to keep improving.
Messi remains the axis of everything. His assist against NYCFC extended his streak of regular-season matches with a goal contribution to 11. Only Martínez (15 in 2019) and Sebastian Giovinco (12 in 2018) have had longer single-season runs in MLS history. Previews put his league tally at 23 goals, with Luis Suárez adding 15. It has been an emotional year for the Argentine, who stepped away from international football after Argentina lost the World Cup final to Spain and his father died.
Miami’s weaknesses are real, though. They have not won away from home since a 1-0 victory at Montreal on July 25. They are also managing injuries: Mateo Silvetti (shoulder) and Yannick Bright (foot) are nursing knocks, and Tadeo Allende is questionable with a knee problem. For Atlanta, defender Will Reilly is doubtful with an ankle injury, while Tomás Jacob returns from suspension.
Keys to the match
History offers Atlanta a sliver of encouragement. The Five Stripes have beaten Miami four times in all competitions since Messi arrived in July 2023 — more than any other MLS club. The September 5 meeting in Miami ended 2-2, with Almirón scoring and Embolo converting a late penalty. But Atlanta have not beaten Miami at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in the regular season since a 5-2 win in 2023, and they are winless in their last four home league matches, collecting a single point.
Three things will likely decide Saturday:
- Set pieces. Miami lead MLS with 16 set-piece goals and 110 big chances created. Atlanta’s back line, minus Reilly, cannot afford lapses on dead balls.
- Containing Messi between the lines. Atlanta must deny him time in the half-spaces without leaving Suárez and Berterame isolated against single coverage.
- Exploiting Miami’s road form. If Atlanta can score first and force Miami to chase, the visitors’ three-month away drought becomes a real factor.
The forecasters lean towards Miami. Opta gives Atlanta a 28.5% chance of winning, with 24.4% for a draw and 47.1% for Miami. Sports Mole predicts a 3-1 Miami win; Squawka projects 2-1.
The playoff maths
Under the MLS format, the top seven teams in each conference go straight to Round One, while the 8th and 9th seeds meet in a Wild Card play-in. Atlanta’s realistic target is that ninth spot. To reach it. They must finish above four of the five clubs currently packed between them and the line.
| Team | Position | Played | Points | Max possible |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 8th | 29 | 36 | 51 |
| FC Cincinnati | 9th | 28 | 36 | 54 |
| New York City FC | 10th | 29 | 33 | 48 |
| Toronto FC | 11th | 29 | 33 | 48 |
| D.C. United | 12th | 28 | 33 | 51 |
| Atlanta United | 14th | 29 | 30 | 45 |
The schedule cuts both ways. Atlanta’s remaining slate:
- October 17 — vs. Inter Miami
- October 24 — vs. Chicago Fire
- October 28 — at New York City FC
- November 1 — vs. Toronto FC
- November 7 — at New York Red Bulls (Decision Day)
Three of those five are head-to-head meetings with rivals in the table. Each is effectively a six-point game. If Atlanta win out, NYCFC and Toronto could finish no higher than 45 points, and the Red Bulls no higher than 48. Atlanta would control much of its own fate against those three.
The bigger threats are FC Cincinnati and D.C. United, who each have a game in hand and play none of their remaining matches against Atlanta. Cincinnati need only nine more points to reach 45; D.C. need 12. And 45 points may not be enough even if Atlanta are perfect, because tiebreakers start with wins and then goal difference, and Atlanta’s -12 goal difference is among the worst in the East.
The bottom line: Atlanta probably need five straight wins — a longer run than any they have put together in MLS play since 2021 — plus a collapse from at least one of Cincinnati or D.C.
The verdict
Atlanta United are not dead yet, but they are on life support, and Saturday is the first of five straight elimination games. A loss to Miami would leave them nine points back with only 12 to play for, effectively ending the chase. A win would move them within three points of the line before Chicago visits next weekend.
The Montreal result showed that Martino’s side still has fight, and Almirón and Embolo are finding the net at the right time. But Miami are healthy at the top of the pitch, freshly motivated and led by the league’s most dangerous player. For Atlanta to extend its season, it will likely need its best performance of the year — and then four more just like it.
